I am sharing on https://tinyurl.com/lexbudgetMBTA a financial model that estimates the Town’s incremental revenues and expenses once all approved and anticipated new MBTA dwellings, such as 17 Hartwell Ave (pictured here), are occupied over the next 8–10 years.

Summary finding: Using assumptions based on known MBTA developments, the model projects an annual deficit of $39 million (in 2026 dollars), or 12% of the Town budget. This projected deficit is driven primarily by (1) the number of additional students living in our new MBTA dwellings who will attend our schools and (2) the very low assessed value of rental apartment complexes compared with single-family houses and condominiums.

The model includes key assumptions in the “MODEL” tab, column B, derived from the best data currently available. Users can change these assumptions in column A (green cells) of that tab to test alternative scenarios. Several scenarios are summarized in tab 5.

Recommendations:

  1. Investigate and solve the “36% problem” urgently.
    Rental apartments now pay in taxes per square foot 36% of what single-family houses pay per square foot (condominiums pay 91%). This “36% problem” has significant fiscal implications. As thousands of additional rental apartments are built and occupied, failing to increase this 36% ratio to a more reasonable 85% before these rental apartment complexes enter our tax levy limit via “new growth” will make Lexington lose an extra $15 million in annual tax revenues.The underlying causes of this 36% problem are unclear and require immediate study. Potential factors include:
    • Use of too high a capitalization rate (7% instead of say 4%) in the income-based valuation method by our Assessors;
    • Reliance by our Assessors on income and expense figures provided by property owners that understate true value;
    • Flaws in the DOR-mandated assessment methodology;
    • Other factors not yet identified.
  2. Challenge the validity of the 8-year zoning freeze (MGL Chapter 40A, Section 6).
    The Town could explore whether 8-year zoning freezes should apply only to specific, already submitted, “projects” rather than broadly to “land” as now written in the State law. The Town could argue that the intent of the statute was to protect real projects, not to preserve old zoning on undeveloped sites for an extra 8 years, an unjustified benefit for developers.
  3. Develop a similar model for Special Residential Developments (SRDs).
    Given how large SRD-related growth in Lexington could be, the Town should model the long-term budget impact of SRDs to inform zoning decisions and mitigation strategies.
  4. Plan proactively for additional school capacity in our new High School.
    With 2,057 additional students expected from MBTA dwellings in 8-10 years and no real decline in enrollment from Lexington’s existing housing stock (the FY27 LPS budget assumes 6,486 students, only 1 less than in FY26), it is more economical to build extra capacity in Bloom upfront than to enlarge it later via retrofits (extension of one wing; Central Office space turned into classrooms).

Patrick Mehr

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