Lexington has long been proud of its exceptional public schools. That’s why we moved here in 1998, transferring our son from a private school in Cambridge to a public school in Lexington. For many families, the quality of education is a major reason for choosing to live here.
Recently, however, I’ve noticed a growing number of parents opting for private schools. Some people say, “Don’t worry, we’ve always had families who can afford high property taxes and an extra $60K for private tuition.” But, is that true? I decided to look into the data.
The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) provides detailed statistics, which I’ve analyzed and present here in the following plot:
In the late 1990s, only about 7% of Lexington students attended private schools (represented by the blue dots), compared to 10% statewide (shown by the orange dots). While it’s unfortunate that some families have not found public schools fit, I felt proud that Lexington could serve such a diverse range of families—across ethnicities, academic needs and income levels—at a much higher rate than the state average.
Since then, however, the trend has mostly declined, with occasional plateaus, while statewide public-school attendance has risen. The state data shows a 1% drop in public-school attendance during the COVID-19 crisis, followed by a recovery. However, in Lexington, the decline started a year earlier, in 2019, hitting 2% (double the state’s decline) and has remained unchanged for the past four years.
The reasons behind this decline in public school attendance are complex, but as a parent of Lexington Public Schools students for 26 years, I’ve observed several changes:
- Academic rigor has shifted away from being the top priority for the school committee.
- Quality metrics have moved from local standards to less rigorous national ones.
- “Closing the achievement gap” has taken precedence over supporting all students equally.
- Advanced classes are no longer added, often in the interest of reducing student stress.
- Excellence is no longer celebrated—“exceeding expectations” has even been removed from report cards.
- Science fairs and extracurriculars like science and math clubs have received less support.
- Over 10 math support schools have opened in Lexington, and many more have opened nearby. Parents who can afford it are compensating for the public schools’ math shortcomings.
- Lexington High School’s overcrowding has led to large class sizes, teacher shortages, and reduced academic offerings—resulting in fewer credits and lowering of graduation requirements.
Each time a family chooses private schooling, I feel the system has failed them. So, how many families are making this choice? The following plot shows the increasing number of students leaving for private schools:
Since 2008, the number of Lexington students attending private schools has surged, reaching an all-time high. The number has more than doubled since the late ’90s, peaking at 863 students in the 2023-2024 school year. If the current trend continues, this number will only grow. Is this the solution to overcrowding in our public schools?
We need to restore the strengths of Lexington Public Schools and make our public school community appealing to all families. The green curve needs to go down, signaling that the system is working effectively.
As a parent, I urge the School Committee to assess family satisfaction and advocate for greater transparency in the curriculum. To support excellence across all areas, we need a metric to measure satisfaction with every aspect of the school experience, including academics and curriculum.
As a senior professional in science and engineering, I’ve noticed a decline in the level of academic knowledge and work ethic of young professionals applying for jobs. We must teach our children to be competitive in their futures by instilling solid foundational knowledge and skills.
We too moved here for the schools and our sons both thrived here — one in science and debate; the other in music. Sevetal of my neighbors however chose to send their children elsewhere over the past 20 years. The reasons were different in each case but I think it’s certainly worth systematically investigating the reasons why.
I am not here to dispute any of the claims in the letter, but I would like to point out two cautionary observations.
The first is anecdotal: None of the Lexington parents I know who moved their kids to private schools did it because of lack of academic rigor. If anything, it was the pressure and over-competitiveness that pushed them out.
The second point is the risk of viewing data in isolation. For example, the rise in private school attendance seems to be highly correlated with the growing gap between the Lexington median income and the state median income over these years. I did not do a statistical analysis, but if you plot this income ratio on a timeline (https://chatgpt.com/share/67dcd411-2c38-800a-83cd-ddcecdd8ae52), it would look very similar to the second chart above. The point is that other factors could be influencing these changes that are not necessarily related to academic rigor or culture as alluded above.
First: why do parents take their kids to private? I wish our School Committee would do exit interviews to see what needs to be improved at LPS. Too many parents are forced to exit.
Second: for 1995-2025, the Lex median income doubled (from 100K to 220K), but tuition of private high schools quadrupled (from 12K to 40K), that is from 12% of income to 18% (per one child), “making private education a larger financial burden over time” as in here:
https://chatgpt.com/c/67df255a-841c-8011-82b1-0672b706aafc
What I’m seeing is that the number of Lexington students in private schools has been constant for the past 5 years.
One could also argue that part of the reason that students are opting out is because of the physical condition of the decrepit, overcrowded high school. I hope Ms. Panasyuk chooses to support the School Building Committee and the “Bloom” option in the future.
1. Lex students got “stuck” in private schools for the last 5 years because the LPS has not improved. On the contrary, the kids across MA who “escaped” covid into private schools now returning back to their public schools and trend is up.
2. The LHS is 98% overcrowded leading to reduced academic offering, large class sizes, and exhausted teachers. How far will it stretch when first 500 students from MBTA communities will join over next 5 years?
On the day of its opening, the Bloom will be over 140% overcrowded.
What we need is a single academic building opening its doors in two years, on the current, operational LHS campus. Multiple bidders will compete to make it cheap and fast. The town will happily support 1/3 of current price with some additional $ going to teachers and education.
I believe there are two things questionable about this analysis:
The first graph reports on only 4% of the 100% range of the data. When you graph this data showing the entire range, the difference is much less dramatic. Please see https://forsdick.com/0MyImages/20250322.png to see how little the differences are over a 27 year period. This mistake is something I learned in high school many years ago when I read the book “How to Lie with Statistics” that was written by Dale Huff in 1954.
The second exception I have is similar to Eran Livneh’s point above: The failure to mention the dramatic increase in family incomes of Lexington residents in the years from 1998 to 2023. Average household income increased from $120,000 in 1998 to $219,400 in 2023 (Figures are adjusted for inflation to 2023 dollars). These increased family resources certainly free up the choices parents have for selecting schools for their children.
I think when analyzing the trends relating to decisions parents make about schooling for their children, one needs to first represent the data correctly and then be very careful to consider all forces that influence such choices.
Harry:
I also know something about “How to Lie with Statistics” — or with made-up “facts”: the SBC has been lying by asserting that if one building on the current LHS campus is rebuilt, all other buildings would have to undergo “code upgrades”; that’s a lie, because the only code upgrade required is handicap accessibility, which has already been done; how do I know that the SBC lied to us? because I asked via a Public Records Request to see the citations to all such “code upgrades”, and Town Counsel wrote to me saying that no such document exists.
Back to your “only 4% of the 100% range of the data”. If you advocated that the y-axis of Lana’s second graph with the green line should be 0 to 1,000 instead of 400 to 900, you would “see” a flat line, and you would conclude — in the SBC’s manner — that “there is no problem”, right? Not the way one does analysis at BCG, I can tell you…
Eran Livneh’s points are well worth exploring. Do you know how to determine whether his hypotheses are what indeed drives the increased attendance by Lexington kids in private schools? I do because they taught me at BCG how to figure such a question out — but our LPS don’t know how to do it. If they (or you) ask me what the trick is, I’ll disclose it.
Patrick,
My comment had nothing to do with the School Building Committee’s work.
In addition, I was not referring to Lana Panasyuk’s second graph, “DSDE # of Lexington Students in Private Schools,” which featured a Y-axis ranging from 400 to 900—covering more than 50% of the total range of the Y-axis data. That second graph in her letter presented the data effectively. My comments instead pertain to the first graph in her letter, where the Y-axis ranged from 89 to 93, representing only 4% of the full Y-axis range. This limited scale artificially amplified the visual impact of the data — as they taught me in my statistics class at Yale in 1965. It’s not BSG, but Yale and subsequently MIT have pretty good reputations in teaching mathematics…
If you examine my graphing comparison (https://forsdick.com/0MyImages/20250322.png), the difference becomes clear: on the left side, where only the top 4% of the Y-axis is displayed, the migration to private schools appears exaggerated. In contrast, the graph on the right side accurately reflects the data. In reality, the number of students opting for private schools is relatively small compared to those attending Lexington Public Schools.
Harry:
If you were to plot the relative heights of Mount Everest and of Wachusett Mountain, would you pick a Y-axis from 0 to 7,000,000 meters (check the earth’s radius) — as in your graph about kids in private schools — and conclude that both mountains are of the same height, or would you pick a Y-axis from 0 to 9,000 meters?
Having attended “only” École Polytechnique, not Yale or MIT, I choose the latter. As someone who thinks our Schools do everything right, you choose the former — but at our Schools’ own peril as that blinds you and the Schools to early signals of trouble, just like our Town leaders in April 2023 saw no early sign of the magnitude of the disaster that article 34 represented for the Town.
Since you recognized your mistake to have supported article 34 in April 2023 by voting YES on article 2 on March 17, 2025, why can’t you acknowledge you are mistaken to assume that our Schools always do everything right?
Patrick,
How about we agree to disagree.
— Harry
To your points, Harry:
1. “From a cosmic perspective, Earth appears incredibly small”, yes, as someone said: if you don’t want to see a problem, just close your eyes. However, I see a child behind each of these 863 students, who would love to go to a local school with their neighborhood friends.
2. Please see my response to Eran above, but in short: quadrupled tuition is making private education a larger financial burden for families whos income only doubled.
3. The data are from DESE. I share these data with Lexingtonians to raise concerns. It is important even without “be very careful to consider all forces that influence” (your words). People can think and make/share their own conclusions.
Lana, being (far) nicer than I am, told Eran — and therefore you — the trick: when a BCG client loses business or doesn’t increase its market share as quickly as aimed for, the way to understand why is to do in-depth interviews of the “lost business”, or as Lana calls it “exit interviews”.
Our LPS do none of this, because their management style belongs in the 19th century, not the 21st.
I agree that exit interviews are a good idea. I also happen to think that turning a good idea into an insult is unhelpful.
Eran:
You don’t know how many times Patrick suggested something in this Town, and in response (i) the powers that be laughed Patrick out of the room (e.g. from Cary Hall when I served in Town Meeting during 2000-15) criticizing the messenger without trying to understand the message, yet (ii) 5, 10 or 15 years later, those same people realized that “Patrick was right after all”.
So as someone who does numbers very well and sees beyond the details that occupy most of our Town leaders, this is frustrating. For example, none of our leaders used their brains in April 2023 when article 34 was enthusiastically adopted (I was out of Town affairs, working on the far more interesting https://plunkettlakepress.com eBooks I publish) and had I not developed https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s_I7RFfVAdjIUpE8YOAFl7M3OA2SwF0j/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116971253884586510151&rtpof=true&sd=true in late 2024 after I discovered that the SBC was designing Bloom for fewer high school students than we have now while thousands of new MBTA dwellings were coming on 228 acres, there would have been no article 2 and Lexington would still be heading blindly towards bankruptcy.
Re exit interviews, I have told Julie she should do them: have the LPS done any? No. Am I surprised? No, because the ineptitude of our School Committee, which does not manage Julie, about anything strategic or financial is unbelievable for anyone who, unlike me, has not looked closely to conclude this. Two examples: (a) Eileen Jay, who has been on the SC for 9 years, and now chairs it, did not know until Joe Pato explained it to her on 2/6/25 at Brookhaven (I witnessed it) that Town Meeting can amend the Schools budget (a.k.a. Line 1100), or (b) the 2025-26 School budget funds 121 elementary classrooms (this 2024-25 school year, the Schools could do with 108 classrooms instead of the 133 it actually operates, a waste of some $3 million annually per https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wWORX21uOpH74F-D6MzVoNjPw7i7TFCU/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116971253884586510151&rtpof=true&sd=true); how was that 121 figure chosen? It was pulled out of the air based on no analysis.
In short, I wish people focused on the issues, not on this messenger — a 71-year-old autistic nerd to whom “one doesn’t teach an old dog new tricks” fully applies.
Re Harry Forsdick, he is typical of the Schools cheerleaders who don’t look at anything strategic or financial: they are killing the Schools without even realizing it, instead of, as I do too undiplomatically, asking the tough questions that may save the Schools. Most urgently now that article 2 passed: what will we do if Bloom dies before it’s built (the Schools have no Plan B) or if built, Bloom turns out to be too small the day it opens (as I predict, because that’s evident)?
I have one in private and one at LHS. I would have loved the opportunity to do an “exit interview” of sorts. I prefer to not be paying private school tuition, tutoring services, and Lexington taxes. In hindsight, we should have moved somewhere else and sent both kids to private school. I wanted to pull my son out of LHS after freshman year but he insisted on staying. George’s concerns are completely valid. The school is too big, the teachers are overwhelmed, the class sizes are too big, and unless your child is really a self advocator they will be lost in the shuffle. This town scores exceptionally well on tests because a lot of the parents can afford enrichment and tutoring outside of school. It really is a shame because the experience both my children had in elementary school was exceptional.
Luckily, in Lexington we still have freedom and liberty and democracy, so Lana Panasyuk and Mr. Mehr, like all Lexington residents, have the right to participate in the public discourse about the LPS curriculum and the design of the new high school. I applaud both for continuing to put their opinions and ideas in front of the residents for consideration.
Lana Panasyuk is recycling the same information she propagated in her failed run for School Committee. Mr. Mehr is recycling the same information he propagated during his failed run for Select Board. Perhaps Lana and Mr. Mehr missed the results of the most recent town-wide election. The residents sent a loud, clear message to both candidates regarding their numerous critiques and suggestions for the town. The message was “NO”.
The results of the election were an affirmation of support for the leadership of Dr. Hackett, the policies approved by the School Committee, and the selection of Bloom as the design for the new high school.
Avram:
Since when does a majority of voters make the result of any vote “correct” vs. realities? Let’s see how quickly the majority of Americans that elected Trump have buyers’ remorse. We already know that all our Town leaders and the quasi-unanimity of Town Meeting was wrong in 2004 re # kids from Avalon at Campus Dr. when “Mr. Mehr” told them — but like you now, they didn’t listen then — that 60 was a bad joke (the real number is 212).
One day, people — who voted against Mr. Mehr and Lana, or is it Patrick and Ms. Panasyuk? FYI, it’s Patrick and Lana — will realize that Patrick and Lana were onto something.
Just like my https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s_I7RFfVAdjIUpE8YOAFl7M3OA2SwF0j/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116971253884586510151&rtpof=true&sd=true analysis in late 2024 made all our Town leaders and the quasi-unanimity of Town Meeting realize (on March 17, 2025 when they approved article 2) that their April 2023 support of article 34 had been profoundly wrong, even though the vote for article 34 had been by a solid majority.
Not to speak of how Germans democratically voted for a certain Chancellor in the 1930s, which led to the destruction of their country after a world war that claimed millions of lives… But I don’t mean to over-dramatize the obvious point I hope you now get: majority votes don’t mean truth, they just mean a preference at a point in time by a small group of people (on March 3, 2025, a solid majority, 73%, of Lexington’s registered voters stayed home), most of whom have no clue what the real issues are.
Mr. Mehr, did you seriously just compare Lexington in 2025 to Nazi Germany?
When you, the failed candidate for Select Board who was overwhelmingly rejected by the voters, say majority votes don’t mean truth, are you positioning yourself as the actual, legitimate source of truth? Are you telling us that the results of the election are not reflective of the views of the town as a whole? Is there a vast “silent majority” of voters who support you, and that if only they had voted you would have been swept to victory?
Avram:
I pointed out that majorities make mistakes when they vote, in Germany in the 1930s, in the US last November as they did 8 years prior, and in Lexington earlier this month — because 3/4 of Lexington voters did not vote, and most of the 1/4 who voted have no idea of how much money our Schools, which are 80% of the Town’s total budget, waste because they are not run efficiently, just like our own AC and SC also have no idea because they don’t look into how the Schools budget is developed.
I don’t understand what you don’t understand about these facts: check your favorite history book, and, as I did, ask the AC person supposed to look at Line 1100 of our budget.
Avram, this isn’t about recycling or propaganda. If we don’t address issues such as academic goals, LHS overcrowding, debt, looming bankruptcy, uncontrolled growth, and rent taxation, to name a few, after the election, they’re only going to get worse. At some point, they’ll reach a tipping point where almost everyone starts to notice.
Some people pick up on these things earlier than others—some even speak up about it.
Honestly, I feel like Lexington has become pretty compliant. My youngest put it perfectly: “Mom, people just aren’t ready for change yet… maybe next year.”
I don’t want some big, destructive revolution. I’d rather see a peaceful way forward – a course correction. In the long run, that’s the better approach.